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How Bitcoin Treasury Companies Can Defend mNAV in a Global Liquidity Crunch
In bull markets, capital feels infinite. Premiums rise, equity issuance flows, and Bitcoin treasury companies are heralded as unstoppable capital machines. But beneath that optimism lies a harder truth: global liquidity (GL) drives everything—and when it contracts, only structurally sound companies survive.
This is the warning Chris Millas, Advisor to Méliuz, issued in a recent post that struck a nerve across the Bitcoin capital markets community. His message is simple, and sobering: most projections for Bitcoin treasury companies ignore the inevitable risk of a global liquidity downturn.
“None of them account for the next global liquidity downturn which will inevitably compress mNAVs and squeeze Bitcoin Yield.”
It’s a cycle we’ve seen before. And it’s coming again.
During the last drawdown, even Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy)—the world’s first Bitcoin-native public company—traded below 1.0x market net asset value (mNAV). If that can happen to the most battle-tested treasury company, it can happen to anyone. Liquidity dries up. Capital formation breaks down. BTC Yield decays. And companies reliant on convertibles or equity raises find themselves with no bid.
Only a handful of firms are structurally equipped to defend their mNAV when that happens. Most aren’t. And in the next liquidity contraction, many will get flushed out.
This article is a direct response to that reality.
How to Defend mNAV: A Tactical Playbook for Bitcoin Treasury Companies
As capital rotates into Bitcoin-native equities, mNAV has become a core strategic metric—one that directly governs whether a company can raise capital efficiently, accumulate BTC without reflexive dilution, and survive when markets turn.
Maintaining a premium to mNAV creates reflexivity: you can issue, raise, and stack with momentum. But if you fall below mNAV, issuance becomes toxic—every dollar raised reduces BTC per share and undermines investor confidence.
Defending mNAV isn’t just about valuation. It’s about capital survivability in the next liquidity crunch. The following tactics form a comprehensive playbook for companies serious about executing a Bitcoin treasury strategy that lasts.
1. Time Issuance Windows Around Liquidity Cycles
Why it matters:
Global liquidity cycles dictate capital availability for Bitcoin treasury companies. During high-liquidity periods, stocks trade at premiums to market Net Asset Value (mNAV), enabling efficient capital raises to increase Bitcoin per share. Issuing equity or debt during liquidity crunches risks selling below mNAV, diluting shareholders and eroding trust. Strategic timing aligns raises with market strength, preserving mNAV and supporting long-term Bitcoin accumulation.
Commentary:
Bitcoin treasury companies must operate with macro awareness, timing capital raises to capitalize on abundant liquidity and investor enthusiasm. Issuing during favorable conditions—when Bitcoin volatility is low and mNAV premiums are high—maximizes BTC per share and reinforces valuation stability. Conversely, raising capital during liquidity contractions can lock in dilution and signal weakness, as seen in firms trading below mNAV in volatile 2025 markets. By aligning issuances with liquidity cycles, companies can fund Bitcoin purchases without compromising shareholder value.
Strategic Guidance:
- Monitor Liquidity Indicators: Track macro signals like the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), central bank balance sheets, and credit spreads to identify high-liquidity windows for capital raises.
- Target mNAV Premiums: Issue equity or debt only when your stock trades above 1.2x mNAV to ensure accretive Bitcoin accumulation and avoid dilution.
- Pause in Downturns: Halt issuances or explore buybacks if your stock falls below 1.0x mNAV, preserving capital structure during liquidity crunches.
- Sync with Bitcoin Trends: Time raises with periods of low Bitcoin volatility and bullish price momentum to leverage investor confidence and maximize capital efficiency.
Operational Tip:
Develop a public liquidity tracking dashboard showing key macro indicators (e.g., DXY, credit spreads) alongside your stock’s mNAV premium. Share this with investors to demonstrate disciplined timing, ensuring capital raises enhance Bitcoin per share and maintain mNAV stability.
2. Use Preferred Instruments to Reduce Dilution Risk
Why it matters:
Preferred instruments, such as preferred shares or convertible bonds, allow Bitcoin treasury companies to raise capital without immediately diluting common shareholders or pressuring market Net Asset Value (mNAV). These tools provide flexibility to fund Bitcoin accumulation during volatile markets, preserving BTC per share and maintaining investor confidence when equity premiums are compressed.
Commentary:
In a liquidity crunch, equity issuances can erode mNAV by forcing sales below fair value, diluting shareholders and undermining trust. Preferred instruments act as a strategic buffer, offering fixed-income capital with terms that align with Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition. By structuring these instruments with low coupons or Bitcoin-denominated redemption options, companies can attract yield-seeking investors while avoiding the immediate dilution of common stock. This approach ensures capital raises support mNAV stability and BTC per share growth, even when markets are risk-off.
Strategic Guidance:
- Structure Flexible Preferred Shares: Issue callable preferred shares with low coupons (3–5%) and optional Bitcoin redemption to appeal to investors while preserving equity structure. Ensure non-voting terms to maintain control.
- Leverage Convertible Bonds: Use convertible bonds with favorable conversion terms to raise debt that can convert to equity at a premium, minimizing immediate dilution and aligning with mNAV growth.
- Back Instruments with BTC Reserves: Secure preferred instruments with a portion of Bitcoin holdings to boost investor confidence, ensuring redemption terms reflect long-term Bitcoin value expectations.
- Time Issuances Strategically: Deploy preferred instruments when equity markets are volatile or mNAV premiums are below 1.2x, providing a non-dilutive bridge to fund Bitcoin accumulation.
Operational Tip:
Design a clear investor prospectus for preferred instruments, outlining coupon rates, redemption options, and BTC backing. Publicly share this alongside mNAV updates to build trust and attract capital, ensuring raises align with long-term Bitcoin treasury goals without compromising shareholder value.
3. Establish Market Maker Relationships to Anchor Liquidity
Why it matters:
A reliable market maker is critical for stabilizing a Bitcoin treasury company’s stock price around its market Net Asset Value (mNAV). Without robust liquidity, share prices can diverge significantly from mNAV in volatile markets, leading to slippage, widened bid-ask spreads, and unwarranted mNAV discounts. For example, Metaplanet Inc. and The Blockchain Group have leveraged partnerships with EVO Fund and TOBAM, respectively, to maintain tight spreads and anchor their stock prices to their Bitcoin-backed NAV, supporting investor confidence and capital efficiency.
Commentary:
Market makers are not just facilitators—they are foundational infrastructure for Bitcoin treasury companies, which often face thin trading volumes due to their niche strategy. A lack of liquidity can cause share prices to drift far below NAV. This disconnect erodes investor trust and complicates capital raises, as discounted valuations signal instability. Metaplanet’s partnership with EVO Fund, which raised $515 million through moving strike warrants in June 2025, and The Blockchain Group’s €4.1 million at-the-market (ATM) equity raise with TOBAM demonstrate how market makers can stabilize trading and support accretive Bitcoin accumulation. These relationships ensure liquidity aligns with mNAV, reducing volatility and enhancing shareholder value.
Strategic Guidance:
- Partner with Experienced Market Makers: Engage firms familiar with NAV-anchored assets to manage liquidity effectively. For example, Metaplanet’s work with EVO Fund and The Blockchain Group’s partnership with TOBAM show how tailored financing supports Bitcoin accumulation while stabilizing stock prices.
- Maintain Robust Liquidity: Ensure market makers provide two-sided trading with narrow bid-ask spreads and deep order books to minimize price swings, as seen in Metaplanet’s coordinated warrant exercises and The Blockchain Group’s market-timed equity issuances.
- Promote mNAV Transparency: Share real-time mNAV data to guide trader expectations and improve price discovery, similar to how Metaplanet and The Blockchain Group disclose Bitcoin holdings to anchor market bids.
Operational Tip:
Create a clear, public BTC reserve dashboard showing holdings and mNAV. Metaplanet’s investor portal and The Blockchain Group’s disclosures exemplify how transparency reduces market friction, empowers market makers to maintain liquidity, and aligns stock prices with underlying Bitcoin value.
4. Run Opportunistic Buybacks Below mNAV
Why it matters:
When a Bitcoin treasury company’s stock trades below its market Net Asset Value (mNAV), opportunistic buybacks can boost Bitcoin per share, signal confidence to investors, and stabilize valuations. By repurchasing shares at a discount, companies effectively acquire Bitcoin exposure at a lower cost, enhancing mNAV and protecting against liquidity crunch-driven undervaluation.
Commentary:
Buybacks are a powerful tool for Bitcoin treasury companies facing mNAV discounts during volatile markets. When shares trade below 1.0x mNAV, repurchasing them increases BTC per share without additional Bitcoin purchases, directly countering dilution and reinforcing investor trust. This strategy is most effective in liquidity crunches, where undervaluation is common, as it sets a valuation floor and tightens bid-ask spreads. By acting decisively, companies can turn market weakness into a strategic advantage, ensuring long-term mNAV resilience.
Strategic Guidance:
- Authorize Buyback Programs Early: Establish pre-approved buyback plans to act swiftly when shares fall below 1.0x mNAV, avoiding delays in volatile markets.
- Prioritize Discounted Valuations: Execute buybacks when your stock trades at a significant mNAV discount (e.g., 0.8x–0.9x), maximizing BTC per share accretion.
- Communicate Strategic Intent: Publicly frame buybacks as a commitment to BTC per share growth, reinforcing confidence without signaling distress.
- Balance Capital Allocation: Use cash reserves or liquid equivalents for buybacks, ensuring Bitcoin holdings remain untouched to maintain strategic reserve integrity.
Operational Tip:
Maintain a public dashboard tracking mNAV alongside buyback activity, clearly showing how repurchases enhance Bitcoin per share. Transparently communicate buyback triggers and outcomes to investors, fostering trust and aligning market perceptions with your mNAV-focused strategy.
5. Treat Bitcoin as Untouchable Strategic Reserve Capital
Why it matters:
Bitcoin held by treasury companies is a strategic reserve, not working capital or inventory. Selling it signals distress, undermines investor trust, and erodes market Net Asset Value (mNAV) premiums critical for capital strategy. Treating Bitcoin as untouchable reinforces long-term conviction, stabilizes valuations, and protects mNAV during liquidity crunches.
Commentary:
The market views Bitcoin treasury companies as proxies for Bitcoin’s value, with mNAV tied to the integrity of their holdings. Selling Bitcoin breaks this trust, signaling operational weakness and inviting valuation discounts, as seen in firms that liquidated reserves during past market downturns. By committing to hold Bitcoin under all but existential circumstances, companies maintain investor confidence and mNAV stability, ensuring capital raises remain accretive even in volatile markets.
Strategic Guidance:
- Secure Bitcoin in Cold Storage: Store 100% of Bitcoin reserves in multi-institution, cold storage custody with robust governance to prevent unauthorized access and signal long-term commitment.
- Define Strict Sale Conditions: Establish and communicate clear policies allowing Bitcoin sales only in catastrophic scenarios (e.g., insolvency, regulatory mandates), reinforcing reserve discipline.
- Fund Operations with Fiat: Cover operating expenses using cash reserves, debt, or equity raises, ensuring Bitcoin remains untouched to preserve mNAV and investor trust.
- Build Shock-Absorbing Structures: Maintain cash buffers, pre-arranged credit lines, or preferred instruments to navigate volatility without dipping into Bitcoin reserves.
Operational Tip:
Publish a clear reserve policy on your investor portal, detailing Bitcoin custody protocols and non-sale commitments. Regularly update investors on reserve integrity alongside mNAV metrics, fostering transparency that aligns market perceptions with your strategic reserve strategy and strengthens mNAV resilience.
6. Publish KPI Dashboards to Guide Market Perception
Why it matters:
Clear, consistent Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) help investors understand a Bitcoin treasury company’s performance, aligning market perceptions with its market Net Asset Value (mNAV). Transparent dashboards reduce skepticism, prevent valuation discounts, and maintain investor trust during liquidity crunches, ensuring capital raises reflect true Bitcoin-backed value.
Commentary:
Bitcoin treasury companies operate in a unique niche, requiring specialized metrics like BTC Yield and mNAV to communicate success. Without clear KPIs, investors may misjudge performance, leading to mNAV discounts and eroded confidence, especially in volatile markets. Regularly publishing accessible dashboards with standardized metrics builds credibility, enables institutional investors to track progress, and anchors stock prices to Bitcoin holdings, safeguarding mNAV against liquidity-driven mispricing.
Strategic Guidance:
- Develop Core KPIs: Track and report metrics like BTC Yield (net Bitcoin per share growth), mNAV (BTC per share × spot price), and Premium/Discount to mNAV to reflect treasury performance clearly.
- Publish Quarterly Dashboards: Share consistent KPI updates with historical comparisons to highlight progress and guide investor expectations, particularly during market downturns.
- Explain Strategic Shifts: Transparently communicate changes in capital strategy (e.g., issuances, buybacks) alongside KPIs to maintain trust and align perceptions with mNAV goals.
- Ensure Accessibility: Make dashboards user-friendly and publicly available on investor portals to facilitate price discovery and reduce market friction.
Operational Tip:
Create an interactive KPI dashboard on your investor website, featuring real-time mNAV, BTC Yield, and issuance impacts. Regularly engage investors through webinars or reports to explain metrics, ensuring transparency that reinforces mNAV stability and supports market confidence in your Bitcoin treasury strategy.
Summary Table: Tools to Defend mNAV
| Tool | When to Use | Key Benefit | Strategic Consideration |
|---|---|---|---|
| Equity Issuance | BTC calm, mNAV premium >1.2x | Maximizes BTC per share | Avoid issuing during liquidity crunches to prevent dilution |
| Preferred Shares | mNAV compression, risk-off markets | Avoids dilution, attracts capital | Structure with BTC redemption to align with long-term value |
| Buybacks | mNAV <1.0x, available cash reserves | Accretive, signals strength | Balance with cash needs to avoid overextension |
| Market Makers | All market cycles | Protects liquidity, reduces spread | Ensure two-sided liquidity to stabilize trading ranges |
| KPI Transparency | Ongoing, especially in downturns | Builds investor trust and discipline | Update dashboards quarterly to maintain market confidence |
| Reserve Capital Discipline | Always, during all conditions | Preserves mNAV by reinforcing long-term Bitcoin conviction | Communicate non-sale policy to anchor investor expectations |
| Treasury Infrastructure | Pre-crisis planning, volatility spikes | Enables turbulence navigation without selling BTC | Pre-arrange credit lines to support liquidity without reserves |
Final Insight
Global liquidity cycles dictate the survival of Bitcoin treasury companies. When liquidity contracts, unprepared firms face mNAV compression, toxic dilution, and eroded investor trust, spiraling into valuation declines. Proactive companies, however, can thrive by embedding resilience into their capital structure.
Key Takeaways:
Defending market Net Asset Value (mNAV) requires disciplined execution across timing issuances, using preferred instruments, securing market makers, running buybacks, maintaining Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, and publishing transparent KPIs. These strategies collectively ensure capital raises are accretive, liquidity remains robust, and investor confidence holds firm, even in volatile markets.
Actionable Steps:
- Plan Ahead: Build a capital strategy that anticipates liquidity crunches, incorporating cash buffers, pre-approved buybacks, and flexible financing tools to avoid distress-driven decisions.
- Prioritize mNAV Defense: Align all capital decisions—issuances, buybacks, and reserve policies—with BTC per share growth to sustain mNAV premiums and market trust.
- Communicate Proactively: Use transparent dashboards and investor updates to showcase disciplined execution, anchoring stock prices to Bitcoin-backed value.
By treating mNAV as a structural moat, Bitcoin treasury companies can navigate global liquidity challenges, emerging as resilient leaders in capital allocation. Proactive planning and disciplined execution are the bedrock of long-term success in Bitcoin-native finance.
Disclaimer: This content was written on behalf of Bitcoin For Corporations. This article is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as an invitation or solicitation to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities.
This post How Bitcoin Treasury Companies Can Defend mNAV in a Global Liquidity Crunch first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Nick Ward.
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Nick Ward
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